Euroroute Network Solutions
Post-Holiday Network Traffic Trends: Planning for Q1 Capacity
Summary
UK ISPs are entering Q1 2026 with a higher baseline level of network traffic and more frequent, predictable peaks. Capacity planning for January through March now needs to assume sustained evening demand, with additional headroom for live sport, gaming releases, and large-scale software updates.
For many years, post-Christmas network planning followed a familiar pattern. Traffic rose sharply in late December, settled through January, and returned to a steadier baseline by early February. That model no longer reflects what operators are seeing on their networks.
Recent data points to a different reality. Usage remains elevated well beyond the holiday period, and peak events are no longer confined to one or two exceptional days. For Q1 2026, the challenge is less about absorbing a temporary spike and more about operating comfortably at a higher “always-on” level.
What post-holiday traffic looks like now
Across the UK market, overall traffic growth is continuing, but at a slower rate than the exceptional years immediately following the pandemic. Openreach reported broadband usage growth of around 4.8% in 2025, down from double-digit growth the year before. The slowdown, however, masks an important shift.
At Zen Internet, average traffic across 2025 rose by around 21%, with monthly usage staying materially above January levels even through the summer months. That points to a permanently higher baseline rather than a seasonal anomaly.
The implication for Q1 is clear. Planning assumptions based on traffic “dropping back” after Christmas are increasingly misaligned with observed behaviour.
Seasonal peaks are now frequent and predictable
Holiday usage patterns still matter, but they have evolved. Data from Virgin Media O2 shows Christmas Day traffic remains relatively subdued, while Boxing Day brings a surge as households update devices, download games, and stream sport. Those Boxing Day peaks have been consistently higher year on year.
Traffic profiles also show a more defined daily rhythm: mid-morning spikes linked to device setup and video calls, a lull around lunchtime, and strong evening demand driven by streaming.
Crucially, these patterns repeat well beyond the festive window. BT/EE and other operators report repeated record peaks through February, March, and into spring, driven mainly by live sport and, to a lesser extent, major game launches and operating system updates.
For planners, this makes peak demand more forecastable, but also more persistent.
Why Q1 capacity needs a different planning model
The combination of a higher baseline and frequent event-driven peaks changes how Q1 capacity should be engineered. Rather than provisioning for a single exceptional day, networks need to support sustained evening load with additional headroom layered on top.
Full-fibre rollout and higher access speeds are pushing more traffic into peak windows. Where backhaul or interconnect upgrades lag behind access growth, congestion becomes more visible to customers, particularly during live events.
Traffic growth is moderating, which narrows the planning band. That predictability can be an advantage, provided assumptions are updated to reflect current behaviour rather than legacy seasonality.
Capacity is only felt if in-home performance keeps up
Adding network capacity does not automatically improve customer experience. During peak periods, performance issues often surface inside the premises, where Wi-Fi coverage, device capability, and firmware behaviour shape what users actually see.
Inconsistent coverage, overloaded access points, or outdated firmware can mask network-side improvements. Customers experience buffering, dropped connections, or degraded quality, even when access and core capacity are sufficient.
For Q1 planning, this creates a dependency between network investment and in-home performance. Technologies such as Wi-Fi 6, managed mesh, and consistent firmware rollout help ensure that additional capacity translates into a tangible improvement during high-demand periods.
Operational consistency during peak periods
Peak demand places pressure on support teams as well as networks. High-visibility events generate time-sensitive complaints, and diagnosing issues without clear visibility into CPE (Customer Premises Equipment) behaviour increases handling time and repeat contacts.
This is where operational consistency becomes a safeguard. Euroroute supports ISPs through no-touch CPE deployment, pre-configured devices from partners such as FRITZ!, Icotera, and Kontron, and Cloud ACS-based remote management powered by AVSystem. These approaches reduce variation at installation and give operations teams clearer insight when demand is highest. Remote visibility, consistent configuration, and the ability to act without truck rolls of engineer visits all help maintain service quality during Q1’s busiest windows.
Euroroute Recommendation
Post-holiday traffic patterns now reflect a sustained operating state rather than a short-lived surge. For UK ISPs, Q1 capacity planning needs to assume higher baseline demand with predictable peaks layered on top. Aligning network upgrades, CPE (Customer Premises Equipment) strategy, and operational processes around that reality allows teams to plan with greater confidence and fewer surprises.
Euroroute works with ISPs to help ensure that added capacity is matched by consistent in-home performance and operational control during the most demanding periods. Contact Euroroute today to explore how our CPE partnerships and operational solutions can support your growth.
UK ISPs are entering Q1 2026 with higher baseline traffic and more frequent peak events.
Euroroute works with ISPs to help ensure that added capacity is matched by consistent in-home performance and operational control during the most demanding periods.